EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: May 2025 (Chart)

Created on April 30, 2025

• The previous month for the euro has been very robust in opposition to the US greenback, as commerce tensions proceed to be a serious point of interest.
• Even if rates of interest are rising in america, there was a little bit of a capital flight from america as foreigners repatriate forex.
• Nevertheless, there’s one other argument to be made that is likely to be enjoying out, and that’s the truth that sure international governments could also be compelled to boost {dollars} in a scenario that’s so chaotic and unknown.

When wanting on the chart, the weekly candlestick that made up the third week of April may be very attention-grabbing. It ended up being a taking pictures star proper on the 1.15 degree, an space that could be a giant, spherical, psychologically important determine, and an space that’s been necessary a number of occasions prior to now. Due to this, I’m paying shut consideration to this market as a result of I do imagine that if this market begins falling with any kind of significance, we are going to see the US greenback reemerge as a really robust forex. It’s very tough to think about a scenario the place the US greenback abruptly will get hamstrung for the longer-term when there’s a lot doubt.

Bond Markets

That is all about bond markets. Whereas the US bond market has been offered off fairly drastically, it’s attention-grabbing that current information exhibits that the Chinese language are literally ramping up their shopping for of 10 12 months T-bills. In different phrases, the narrative isn’t fairly proper, however as soon as we get the April information, that would offer you extra of a “heads up” as to how the US greenback could behave.

I feel there’s a variety of chaos on the planet, and it’s tough to get readability as to the place we go subsequent, but it surely definitely appears to be like as if the euro is beginning to run out of energy. This doesn’t imply that we now have to fall by means of the ground, however something beneath the 1.12 degree would have me getting bearish fairly rapidly. However, if the market takes out the highest of that weekly candlestick, we may see the euro begin driving towards the 1.18 degree above.

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