Trading Signals & Macro Trends

Wealthy in heavy crude, quick on time: Can Colombia capitalize on tight market?

Colombia’s heavy bitter crude is very fascinating, with sanctions on Venezuela and falling crude output ranges in Mexico threatening heavy bitter provide to the US. Nevertheless, the nation’s declining manufacturing harms its capacity to capitalize on a market quick on heavy and medium grades. Mature belongings and a scarcity of discoveries are driving falling output, although Ecopetrol and regional independents are using enhanced oil restoration (EOR) strategies to enhance manufacturing in current blocks with some success. With authorities insurance policies as a wall to exploring new acreage, a concentrate on growing manufacturing at current fields would be the finest avenue Colombia can take to quell declining manufacturing and preserve exports.

Colombia was the fourth-largest crude oil producer in Latin America final yr, solely behind Brazil, Venezuela, and Mexico. Nevertheless, Argentina’s rising shale output thus far in 2025 is propelling it forward of the production-declining Colombia. Crude oil output in Colombia averaged virtually 750,000 barrels per day (bpd), with condensate averaging simply 16,000 bpd in 2024. The nation primarily produces heavy crude, with the heavy bitter grades making up 50% of the full manufacturing final yr, adopted by heavy common and heavy candy grades. Colombia usually appears to be overshadowed by different Latin American producers – Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina – that, in contrast to Colombia, are rising home manufacturing quickly. Alternatively, Colombian manufacturing has been on a declining slope since 2015, when crude and condensate output peaked at 1 million bpd, falling by 23% in 2024.