Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, And XAUUSD (May 5-9, 2025)

The foreign exchange market had a comparatively sluggish second half of April, however current worth motion hints at a extra eventful begin to Could.

In right now’s Weekly Foreign exchange Forecast, I share the important thing ranges and potential commerce setups I’m watching on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.

Let’s get began!

US Greenback Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY is at present battling the 100.20 key stage, with consumers pushing exhausting to substantiate a bullish reversal. A rally like this might be a much-needed reduction rally, contemplating sellers have been in management since January.

Whether or not we get some reduction for the DXY is dependent upon what occurs at 100.20. If the US greenback can reclaim this space on the excessive time frames, a push to 101.80 may very well be subsequent.

One purpose I like 101.80 as resistance and a possible goal is the April tenth imbalance. The rate of that transfer left some liquidity on the desk, which may function a magnet.

With that stated, all of it hinges on 101.20. The extent stays key resistance so long as the DXY trades under it on a day by day closing foundation.

Even when we do see some reduction from the USD, watch out to not get too bullish. Even a retest of 101.80 wouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the downtrend.

EURUSD Forecast

Similar to the DXY is battling the 101.20 key stage, the EURUSD is difficult 1.1280 on Thursday. That’s the excessive from July 2023, and under that now we have a number of highs from August and September of final 12 months at 1.1200.

There’s additionally an ascending pattern line that traces up with EURUSD 1.1200, including some confluence there.

In the event you noticed my EURUSD video earlier within the week, I used to be anticipating a pullback into 1.1280 and presumably 1.1200. Given the sell-side imbalance within the area, it appeared seemingly.

What occurs at 1.1200 (if examined) may decide the following few weeks. 1.1200 will undoubtedly entice consumers, however a failure there would open up draw back targets like 1.1100 and presumably 1.0940.

However, the euro has been in an aggressive uptrend since March, so attempting to buck the pattern with out a clear sign is ill-advised.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD is exhibiting indicators of fatigue after barely sweeping the 1.3434 excessive from final September.

If the pound confirms a reversal with a sustained transfer under 1.3200, we may see among the sell-side imbalance come into play close to 1.3050. There’s a bigger imbalance under 1.3000, however one stage at a time.

As talked about with EURUSD, merchants must watch out attempting to brief GBPUSD with out a correct sign. One such sign is seeing the DXY reclaim 100.20 to reveal 100.70. However even then, it’d solely sign a brief retracement.

Instant help for GBPUSD is on the current lows of 1.3240 and extends right down to 1.3200. However, key resistance is 1.3434.

USDCHF Forecast

USDCHF is beginning to pique my curiosity, however the pair hasn’t finished sufficient to substantiate a commerce setup but. Particularly, I’m watching to see if consumers can reclaim the 0.8330-0.8355 space on the excessive time frames.

That’s the realm between the December 2023 low and the January 2015 low. It’s additionally the underside of a variety USDCHF has revered for ten years, not less than till the current breakdown.

However I’d all the time choose to trade a fakeout if it units up because of their excessive success fee. We’ll see if USDCHF consumers can get the job finished.

If they’ll, it may arrange a reduction rally towards 0.8560, or not less than the current lows at 0.8480. And if they’ll’t, then 0.8355 stays key resistance, and sellers are in management. Time will inform.

Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast

To say gold has been unstable can be an enormous understatement. Earlier than April, a $50 single-day transfer would have made headlines; now, $50-$100 days are the norm.

That’s made for some intense strikes, however the worth motion may very well be higher.

I’m not a fan of excessive volatility like this. I’d a lot slightly commerce a sluggish however regular market, because it permits for extra management through the commerce.

In the event you insist on buying and selling XAUUSD, one space to look at is the area between $3,100 and $3,150. Not solely is that the early April swing excessive, nevertheless it’s additionally the highest of an ascending channel from December 2023.

Whether or not gold bulls can maintain the road there may very well be telling as we enter Could. However as all the time, $3,100 is essential help till confirmed in any other case.