First Impressions: NZ Business Confidence
Enterprise confidence has largely held up for the reason that US tariff announcement.
Key outcomes, April 2025
- Enterprise confidence: 49.3 (Prev: 57.5)
- Expectations for personal buying and selling exercise: 47.7 (Prev: 48.6)
- Exercise vs similar month one yr in the past: 11.3 (Prev: 0.8)
- Inflation expectations: 2.65% (Prev: 2.63%)
- Pricing intentions: 49.3 (Prev: 51.2)
The ANZ April enterprise opinion survey – the primary one held for the reason that US “Liberation Day” tariff announcement – was remarkably regular. Sentiment about basic circumstances was softer in comparison with March, however agency’s own-activity expectations have been little modified, and stay at excessive ranges.
ANZ did notice that responses have been weaker within the later a part of the month, albeit based mostly on a small pattern. There was additionally some divergence in responses by sector, with confidence selecting up within the extra domestically-focused companies sectors, whereas it fell within the extra trade-exposed manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
A internet 11% of corporations stated that circumstances have been higher than a yr in the past, a powerful carry from the March studying. This does a minimum of level to some consistency within the responses, because it was in April final yr when this measure fell sharply. Employment was additionally reported to be barely larger in comparison with a yr in the past.
The pricing gauges of the survey have been combined. A internet 78% of corporations count on their very own prices to extend, in comparison with 74% in March. This measure has been selecting up since late final yr, and certain displays the autumn within the New Zealand greenback over that point (although the foreign money truly rose strongly within the second half of April). Nonetheless, corporations’ personal pricing intentions eased again barely, and expectations of the inflation price over the yr forward have been little modified.
Total, companies appear to have taken a measured view up to now of the influence of the US tariffs. That will change over time, as soon as we see whether or not or not the laborious information helps a few of the extra dire predictions in regards to the influence on the worldwide economic system. As we famous in our preliminary evaluation, the direct influence of the ten% on NZ exports is unwelcome however is prone to be manageable; the oblique impacts will probably be extra important however are more durable to evaluate, and can rely partially on how policymakers in different international locations reply.
