Forex Signals Brief Feb 20: Eyes on Jobless Claims and Donald Trump

Stay BTC/USD Chart

Today the US unemployment claims and comments from Washington will be the focus of financial markets, so all markets are at risk, considering the recent price action.

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One of the crucial vital developments yesterday was former President Donald Trump’s sharp social media submit criticizing Ukrainian President Zelensky as a dictator and calling for elections. It was no shock that Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared happy with the continued negotiations, which suggests the top of this battle, given the remark for a discount in Pentagon spending. One other surprising growth was discuss of an 8% reduce within the U.S. navy finances.

The U.S. greenback confirmed broad power, whereas the euro suffered from the uncertainty, pushing EUR/USD right down to 1.04. Within the international alternate market, risk-averse sentiment was obvious, although not overwhelmingly so. Whereas bond yields fell by 1-3 foundation factors, fairness markets noticed modest good points, regardless of a pointy reversal in European shares. The USD/JPY pair neared its lowest stage of the 12 months, declining 60 pips on the day on account of sturdy yen shopping for.

Amongst commodity currencies, USD/CAD was a notable gainer, although the antipodean currencies noticed little motion. Kazakhstan’s constrained oil manufacturing had a strong efficiency. The Australian greenback briefly spiked following a report suggesting that Trump might search a extra complete commerce cope with China. Regardless of the notable drop in rates of interest, there was little motion outdoors of the yen, with the New Zealand greenback remaining flat by the top of the day.

Gold reached a report excessive of $2,947 earlier than settling at $2,933. The S&P500 additionally hit a brand new all-time excessive, whereas WTI crude oil completed barely increased, gaining $0.40 to shut at $72.30. Meta’s inventory continued to slip, dropping roughly 5% on Tuesday. In the meantime, Palantir shares plunged 10% following Trump’s feedback about an 8% discount in Pentagon spending.

At present’s Market Expectations

The newest Labour Drive report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed employment rising by 44,000, exceeding the anticipated 20,000 however barely under the earlier improve of 56,300. The unemployment price edged as much as 4.1% from 4.0%, although this improve was largely on account of a surge within the participation price, which reached a report excessive of 67.3%, surpassing the anticipated and prior studying of 67.1%. Feminine workforce participation performed a major position on this development. Full-time employment noticed a robust achieve of 54,100 jobs, whereas part-time employment declined by 10,100, following the earlier report’s figures of +80,000 full-time and -23,700 part-time jobs. The information highlights a resilient labor market with rising workforce engagement and strong full-time job creation.

The US Jobless Claims report stays a key financial launch every week, providing a well timed gauge of labor market situations. Whereas some easing has been noticed, persevering with claims stay close to cyclical highs, and preliminary claims have stayed throughout the 200K–260K vary since 2022. This week, preliminary claims are anticipated to rise barely to 215K from final week’s 213K, whereas persevering with claims are forecasted to extend to 1,863K from 1,850K.

Market volatility remained low in foreign exchange yesterday, with the US greenback step by step strengthening as soon as once more. US inventory markets maintained a barely bullish stance, prompting continued lengthy positions in equities, whereas we opened one other promote indicators in crude after the failure to succeed in $73. Cryptocurrencies moved increased yesterday, with XRP bouncing $0.20.

Gold Pushes One other leg increased Towards $3,000

After President Donald Trump’s choice to implement reciprocal automobile and Chip tariffs, monetary markets confirmed indicators of unease, growing demand for safe-haven property like gold. Final week gold positioned report excessive at $2,940 nevertheless it skilled a pointy drop, nevertheless it discovered help was discovered under the 50-day SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart. This week gold prices bounced increased and yesterday we noticed one other excessive at $2,947.knowledge:;base64,

XAU/USD – H4 Chart

USD/JPY Nonetheless Stay Bullish on the Weekly Chart

This week, the UK employment report exceeded expectations, with common earnings rising and the unemployment price edging down. In the meantime, GBP/USD dipped under 1.26 after displaying sturdy bullish momentum final week, although this decline was primarily pushed by USD power.knowledge:;base64, USD/JPY – Each day Chart

Cryptocurrency Replace

Bitcoin Continues to Stay Between MAs

BTC/USD – Each day chart

Ethereum Begins to Reverse Greater

In the meantime, Ethereum has confronted sturdy promoting strain since surpassing $4,000 in late 2024. A dramatic flash crash on Monday noticed ETH lose almost half its worth, plunging to $2,000 earlier than partially recovering. Whereas sentiment stays bearish, Ethereum might regain upward momentum if the $2,000 help stage holds and general market sentiment improves.